Connecticut came into last Saturday's game
with Rutgers as the lone unbeaten team in the country against the spread. The
Huskies, favored by 7.5 points in their first home game since the death of
Jasper Howard, not only failed to gain the ATS victory, but lost the game
outright on an 81-yard touchdown pass from Tom Savage to Tim Brown inside the
final minute of play.
Betting on teams based on their season's ATS records is an easy way to lose
money, and that contest proved just that.
After the game was completed, I decided to check last year's records of all 120
teams and see how the best and worst ATS clubs from that season are doing
in '09. The results were somewhat predictable.
There were 22 teams last year that finished at least four games above the .500
mark against the spread, led by Florida at 12-1, North Carolina State at 10-2
and Oklahoma at 10-3.
The combined ATS record of those 22 clubs was 191-81, good for a 70% winning
percentage. This season, those same 22 teams are 77-79 ATS with only eight
squads above .500. In addition, Florida, NC State and Oklahoma are a combined
8-11-2.
On the other side, there were 14 clubs that ended up below the .500 mark by
four games or more, led by Washington at 1-11 and Fresno State at 2-11. This
season, those same 14 teams are 56-48-1 (54%), a much-improved record over last
year's 41-126 mark (25%).
The Huskies and Bulldogs have not been weekly money-makers this season at a
combined 8-6-1, but some other squads have picked up the slack. Wyoming is
currently 6-1 ATS after a dismal 2-9 record in '08, while Indiana and
Washington State are a combined 10-6, despite going 6-17 ATS just one season
ago.
Based on all those numbers, one can easily conclude that ATS records do not
transfer from one season to the next, and should not be used when analyzing
which team to wager on.
CONFERENCE HOME UNDERDOGS
One angle that many handicappers use on a week-to-week basis is betting on
conference home underdogs. After two weeks of taking it on the chin (8-13 in
week seven and 4-12 in week eight), those gamblers were rewarded last Saturday
with nine covers in 14 games.
A couple of the highlights were Auburn and Illinois, two teams that gained
outright victories over Ole Miss and Michigan, respectively. But perhaps the
biggest win of the bunch came from a team that shouldn't have been an underdog
in the first place.
Oregon came into the game vs. Southern Cal as one of the hottest teams in the
country, outscoring its opponents by a 161-38 margin the previous four games.
USC, on the other hand, had allowed 63 points in its prior two contests - the
most Pete Carroll's team had allowed in a two-game span since the '03 season.
The Trojans had zero answers defensively vs. the Ducks, giving up 613 total
yards of offense while the 27-point loss was their most lopsided defeat in over
10 years. Nevertheless, those numbers pale in comparison to this next bit of
information, a juicy nugget that will raise the eyebrows of every single
college football enthusiast in the country.
With the 47 points allowed on Saturday, the Trojans have now given up the most
points ever (110) in a three-game stretch in the history of the program, one
that dates back to 1888! So much for a defense that allowed only 43 points in
the first five games.
USC should bounce back with a SU win this week at Arizona State, especially
since the Trojans have won the last nine meetings. However, they have not fared
too well ATS on the road in conference play of late, with only six covers in
their last 23 games.
A THURSDAY TWO-STAR SELECTION
Temple is riding high this week after winning its sixth straight game, a
victory that has the Owls bowl-eligible for the first time since 1979. The
celebrations better be short, due to the quick turnaround that comes with
Thursday night's game with Miami-Ohio.
The RedHawks also face a shortened week, but the oddsmakers aren't expecting
much from them even though they picked up their first "W" of the season this
past Saturday against Toledo.
The Owls used up a ton of energy to topple Navy - a game they were amped up for
all week long. Not only did they need only one more win for their sixth of the
year, they had revenge on their minds after the Midshipmen stunned them in last
season's contest, overcoming a 20-point deficit with 14 minutes before winning
in overtime.
Take Miami-Ohio plus the points.
THE NEW JEFF FRANK TOP 10
The Top 10 list is a guide for predicting spreads for the upcoming week.
1) Texas, 110.5; 2) Florida, 107; 3) Oklahoma, 103; 4) Boise State, 102.5; 5)
Oregon, 102; 6) TCU, 101; 7) Alabama, 100.5; 8) Penn State, 98.5; 9-T) Ohio
State and Georgia Tech, 98.
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