It's much easier for an underdog to cover
the spread than win a game outright, especially when getting double-digits, but
don't tell that to Oregon State.
The Beavers come into their game at California with a 12-6 ATS mark in their
last 18 as double-digit underdogs. More importantly for the program, they have
been victorious in at least one of those games each of the last four years.
Most college football fans are well aware of how well Oregon State has fared
vs. Southern Cal the past few seasons, covering seven of the last 10 matchups
with outright victories in both '08 (27-21 as a 24.5-point underdog) and '06
(33-31 as a 10-point dog).
On the other hand, how many folks know that the Beavers have an even better
record against California with eight straight-up wins in the last 10 meetings?
They have only covered six of those 10, but this year Mike Riley's club is
poised not only to cover the seven-point spread, but to win the game outright.
The Beavers have won the last four matchups in Berkeley, three times as
underdogs - in '03, '05 and '07 - with the last two coming while getting two
touchdowns or more!
Cal turned the tables in Corvallis with blowout victories in '04 and '06 but
couldn't get the job done last year.
Oregon State, behind 144 rushing yards from Jacquizz Rogers, won the game 34-21
when Keenan Lewis reached the end zone after intercepting a Kevin Riley pass
inside the final minute of play. The Golden Bears quarterback suffered through
a miserable day completing just 9-of-23 for 94 passing yards after the first
drive of the game.
That performance marked the second straight year Riley has faltered vs. the
Beavers.
Back in '07, making his first career start in place of an injured Nate
Longshore, Riley needed to bring his team back from a 10-point fourth quarter
deficit to gain the victory. A 65-yard TD strike to Lavelle Hawkins cut the
lead to three with 2:30 left to play.
However, the final drive will always be remembered with sadness in Northern
California after Riley tried running for the winning score on the game's final
play (with zero time outs remaining) instead of throwing the ball away to set
up for a potential game-tying 29-yard field goal.
The Golden Bears actually came into that contest off a bye week, and Oregon
State had already lost its two road games by a combined 43 points. But that's
the magic of the Beavers when it comes to playing in Berkeley.
BACK TO THE PRESENT
Oregon State has won three of its last four games with the only defeat coming
at USC by six points. The offense is coming alive averaging 32 ppg in those
contests after averaging just 24 in the first three FBS games.
More importantly, the offensive line has picked up its play as well allowing
only eight sacks in the last four after giving up 15 in the first four. In
addition, the defense has garnered six sacks of its own in October after just
two in September.
Here's one other nugget to chew on. The Beavers own a 14-3 straight-up record
from November 1 on since the '06 season.
California has rebounded from its earlier slump by winning its last three, but
one of those "W's" came against Washington State while the last one was a last-
minute, two-point victory at Arizona State.
The Beavers are the better team coming into this contest and are getting seven
points to boot. Given their successful recent history at Memorial Stadium, look
for them to once again upset the home team and become bowl eligible with win
number six on the season.
Take Oregon State plus the points.
AFTER NINE WEEKS
I went 8-9 last week for a nine-week total of 78-68-2, good for 53%. The one
Five-Star play was successful so the season total now stands at 3-4. The Three-
Star selections are now 25-24-1 after another 2-2 week.
Meanwhile, the Two-Star plays finished 2-2 for a 27-17-1 overall mark while the
One-Star picks went 3-5 for a 23-23 record.
As a reminder, the Five-Star plays are when my Power Plays and Key Plays
coincide. The Three-Star selections comprise the rest of my Power Plays: games
where there's at least a five-point differential between my line and the actual
line. The Two-Star picks are the remaining Key Plays and the One-Star plays are
the secondary selections.
THREE-STAR PLAYS
There are just a few Three-Star selections this week led by Indiana (vs.
Wisconsin). The other two are UL-Monroe (at North Texas) and Western Michigan
(at Michigan State).
TWO-STAR PICKS
Oregon State is the main play in week 10 but there's another road underdog that
could pull out the outright victory and that's Duke.
The Blue Devils have been amazing this season with more wins (five) this year
than in the last three combined. Not only that, they are all alone in second
place in the Coastal Division with an outside shot at overtaking Georgia Tech
if they can win this week vs. North Carolina and the following Saturday at home
against the Yellow Jackets.
October was a month to remember for David Cutcliffe's squad with three
victories in the four games. After destroying North Carolina State in Raleigh
(the first conference road win since upsetting North Carolina in '03), the Blue
Devils could have faltered in their subsequent outing. Instead, they outgained
Maryland by 145 yards and would have won by more than four points if Thaddeus
Lewis hadn't fumbled at the Terrapins' one-yard line in the fourth quarter.
The best was yet to come the following week in Charlottesville where Duke
outgained Virginia 424 yards to 196 and won the game by a 28-17 count. The Blue
Devils, once again, could have stumbled after losing two leads (9-3 at halftime
and 12-10 in the fourth quarter) but they persevered (even after Lewis threw an
interception at Virginia's seven-yard line midway through the fourth) to win
going away.
North Carolina should feel better about itself moving forward after knocking
off Virginia Tech, just one week after blowing the game vs. Florida State.
Nevertheless, the offense still isn't there with only six touchdowns in the
four ACC matchups. In addition, T.J. Yates has completed 53% of his tosses for
just 467 yards in those games.
The Blue Devils have covered the last three meetings in Chapel Hill but the one
thing that has eluded them has been a straight-up victory. They'll get it on
Saturday.
Take Duke plus the points.
The two other Two-Star plays are Illinois (at Minnesota) and Kansas State (vs.
Kansas).
ONE-STAR PICKS
Go with Idaho (vs. Fresno State), New Mexico (at Utah), Washington State (at
Arizona), UL Lafayette (at Arkansas State), Navy (at Notre Dame), Houston (at
Tulsa) and Stanford (vs. Oregon).
©2009 Sports Network. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
