DrDestiny, I still say that there is way too much money spent on this type of research. The money could be better spent by adding check points up and down the fault line to moniter any increase in activity. As far as preparing for such an event, I am always prepared for an emergency, but there are those that will never prepare irregardless of the information that is available.

dtomdick - The difference between you making up a probability and the statistic given by the report is data to back the claim. These researchers gathered data points of previous earthquakes in the area by looking at underwater sediment slides that coincide with massive earthquakes due to plates sliding. A student in second grade mathematics could at the very least average the times in between these events to give you a rough idea of when the next will be. By using a bell curve you can estimate percentages over a given time. Whether or not you realize it, this research is extremely important to residents of the pacific northwest. The 9.0 cascadia subduction zone earthquake will last for minutes while decimating the entire coastline, destroy buildings and infrastructure, and severely disrupt transportation and utilities. The more precisely that scientists can predict when it will happen--the more prepared people can be for when it comes.

Well I could have said that there is a 40 percent chance of a major quake in the next 50 years, without spending a dime. That leaves me with a 60 percent chance that there won't be one. Kind of like forecasting the weather, there is no incorrect forecast using the percentage basis.